Dioscorides' Plants, Then and Now
From ranking to action

Action plan

A ranking alone does not tell anyone what to do. Here every plant is placed by two model outputs: does its wild habitat shrink by 2050, and is there farmland where it could be grown instead? That gives four actions. A grower finder then turns the cultivation zones into a list a farmer can use.

Decision matrix

11 of 32 plants lose wild habitat by 2050 under all 3 climate models; the other 21 keep or gain habitat. 19 need their identification or data resolved before money is spent on them.

Decision matrix: range change by 2050 against candidate cultivation areaCretan dittany: −58% range change, 17 km² cultivation zone, Protect and cultivate; Hyssop: −69% range change, 374 km² cultivation zone, Protect and cultivate; Marsh mallow: −62% range change, 2874 km² cultivation zone, Protect and cultivate; Cretan mountain tea / ironwort: −50% range change, 272 km² cultivation zone, Protect and cultivate; Wild peonies of Greece: −24% range change, 3994 km² cultivation zone, Protect and cultivate; Liquorice: −56% range change, 2231 km² cultivation zone, Protect and cultivate; Elder: −48% range change, no cultivation zone, Protect: no cultivation fallback; Prickly juniper (eastern): −23% range change, no cultivation zone, Protect: no cultivation fallback; Greek oregano: −18% range change, no cultivation zone, Protect: no cultivation fallback; St John's wort: −9% range change, no cultivation zone, Protect: no cultivation fallback; Stinging nettle: −29% range change, no cultivation zone, Protect: no cultivation fallback; Ribwort plantain: +69% range change, no cultivation zone, Monitor; Wall germander: +14% range change, no cultivation zone, Monitor; Lemon balm: +50% range change, no cultivation zone, Monitor; Felty germander: +97% range change, no cultivation zone, Monitor; German chamomile: +65% range change, 9565 km² cultivation zone, Cultivation opportunity; White horehound: +191% range change, 27708 km² cultivation zone, Cultivation opportunity; Wormwood: +151% range change, 3665 km² cultivation zone, Cultivation opportunity; Common mallow: +77% range change, no cultivation zone, Monitor; Rosemary: +38% range change, no cultivation zone, Monitor; Fennel: +76% range change, no cultivation zone, Monitor; Greek sage: +28% range change, 3146 km² cultivation zone, Cultivation opportunity; French / topped lavender: +45% range change, 6813 km² cultivation zone, Cultivation opportunity; Conehead thyme: +8% range change, 971 km² cultivation zone, Cultivation opportunity; squirting cucumber: +63% range change, 5387 km² cultivation zone, Cultivation opportunity; Yellow horned poppy: +9% range change, no cultivation zone, Monitor; Common centaury: +17% range change, no cultivation zone, Monitor; pennyroyal: +18% range change, 4861 km² cultivation zone, Cultivation opportunity; Greek cyclamen: +11% range change, 5807 km² cultivation zone, Cultivation opportunity; Mastic tree, lentisk: +1% range change, no cultivation zone, Monitor; caper: +161% range change, no cultivation zone, Monitor; Mandrake: +55% range change, 4496 km² cultivation zone, Cultivation opportunity.PROTECT AND CULTIVATEPROTECT: NO FALLBACKCULTIVATION OPPORTUNITYMONITOR−100%−50%0%+50%+100%+150%≥ +200%Range change by 2050, moderate emissions (median, bar = spread of 3 climate models)1001,00010,000noneCultivation zone 2050, km² (log)Cretan dittany (Origanum dictamnus) · rank 1 · −58% (−81% to −24%) · 17 km²Cretan dittanyHyssop (Hyssopus officinalis) · rank 2 · −69% (−74% to −57%) · 374 km² · resolve data firstHyssopMarsh mallow (Althaea officinalis) · rank 3 · −62% (−68% to −55%) · 2,874 km²Marsh mallowCretan mountain tea / ironwort (Sideritis syriaca) · rank 4 · −50% (−52% to −32%) · 272 km² · resolve data firstCretan mountain teaWild peonies of Greece (Paeonia L.) · rank 5 · −24% (−41% to −17%) · 3,994 km² · resolve data firstPeoniesLiquorice (Glycyrrhiza glabra) · rank 6 · −56% (−61% to −18%) · 2,231 km² · resolve data firstLiquoriceElder (Sambucus nigra) · rank 7 · −48% (−52% to −42%) · no cultivation zone · resolve data firstElderPrickly juniper (eastern) (Juniperus deltoides) · rank 8 · −23% (−25% to −16%) · no cultivation zone · resolve data firstGreek oregano (Origanum vulgare) · rank 9 · −18% (−19% to −14%) · no cultivation zoneSt John's wort (Hypericum perforatum) · rank 10 · −9% (−10% to −5%) · no cultivation zone · resolve data firstStinging nettle (Urtica dioica) · rank 11 · −29% (−36% to −29%) · no cultivation zoneRibwort plantain (Plantago lanceolata) · rank 12 · +69% (+55% to +75%) · no cultivation zone · resolve data firstWall germander (Teucrium chamaedrys) · rank 13 · +14% (+9% to +15%) · no cultivation zone · resolve data firstLemon balm (Melissa officinalis) · rank 14 · +50% (+36% to +53%) · no cultivation zone · resolve data firstFelty germander (Teucrium capitatum) · rank 15 · +97% (+85% to +103%) · no cultivation zone · resolve data firstGerman chamomile (Matricaria chamomilla) · rank 16 · +65% (+61% to +71%) · 9,565 km² · resolve data firstGerman chamomileWhite horehound (Marrubium vulgare) · rank 17 · +191% (+178% to +196%) · 27,708 km² · resolve data firstWhite horehoundWormwood (Artemisia absinthium) · rank 18 · +151% (+31% to +158%) · 3,665 km²WormwoodCommon mallow (Malva sylvestris) · rank 19 · +77% (+73% to +78%) · no cultivation zone · resolve data firstRosemary (Salvia rosmarinus) · rank 20 · +38% (+29% to +47%) · no cultivation zone · resolve data firstFennel (Foeniculum vulgare) · rank 21 · +76% (+61% to +79%) · no cultivation zone · resolve data firstGreek sage (Salvia fruticosa) · rank 22 · +28% (+23% to +47%) · 3,146 km² · resolve data firstFrench / topped lavender (Lavandula stoechas) · rank 23 · +45% (+36% to +47%) · 6,813 km²Conehead thyme (Thymbra capitata) · rank 24 · +8% (+3% to +9%) · 971 km²squirting cucumber (Ecballium elaterium) · rank 25 · +63% (+63% to +74%) · 5,387 km²Yellow horned poppy (Glaucium flavum) · rank 26 · +9% (+3% to +10%) · no cultivation zoneCommon centaury (Centaurium erythraea) · rank 27 · +17% (+8% to +28%) · no cultivation zone · resolve data firstpennyroyal (Mentha pulegium) · rank 28 · +18% (+6% to +30%) · 4,861 km² · resolve data firstGreek cyclamen (Cyclamen graecum) · rank 29 · +11% (−5% to +12%) · 5,807 km²Mastic tree, lentisk (Pistacia lentiscus) · rank 30 · +1% (−1% to +7%) · no cultivation zonecaper (Capparis spinosa) · rank 31 · +161% (+147% to +177%) · no cultivation zonecaperMandrake (Mandragora officinarum) · rank 32 · +55% (+49% to +68%) · 4,496 km²
Solid: identification and model reliable (fill = risk class, size = risk score)Hollow dashed: disputed identification or low-confidence model, resolve data firstHover or focus a point for values; select it to open the plant.

Actions by plant

Protect and cultivate

6

Protect remaining wild stands and start cultivation in the 2050 zones.

Rule: Loses habitat in all 3 climate models · has a 2050 cultivation zone

  • Cretan dittany0.62 · High
    No. 1 · −58% habitat · 17 km² to cultivate · EU monograph
  • Hyssop0.57 · Elevated
    No. 2 · −69% habitat · 374 km² to cultivate
    Resolve data first:DisputedLow-confidence model
  • Marsh mallow0.54 · Elevated
    No. 3 · −62% habitat · 2,874 km² to cultivate · EU monograph
  • Cretan mountain tea / ironwort0.49 · Elevated
    No. 4 · −50% habitat · 272 km² to cultivate · EU monograph
    Resolve data first:DisputedLow-confidence model
  • Wild peonies of Greece0.44 · Elevated
    No. 5 · −24% habitat · 3,994 km² to cultivate
    Resolve data first:Disputed
  • Liquorice0.40 · Moderate
    No. 6 · −56% habitat · 2,231 km² to cultivate · EU monograph
    Resolve data first:Low-confidence model

Protect: no cultivation fallback

5

Prioritise in-situ protection and seed banking; no suitable farmland found.

Rule: Loses habitat in all 3 climate models · no 2050 cultivation zone

  • Elder0.39 · Moderate
    No. 7 · −48% habitat · no cultivation zone · EU monograph
    Resolve data first:Low-confidence model
  • Prickly juniper (eastern)0.38 · Moderate
    No. 8 · −23% habitat · no cultivation zone
    Resolve data first:Disputed
  • Greek oregano0.37 · Moderate
    No. 9 · −18% habitat · no cultivation zone
  • St John's wort0.34 · Moderate
    No. 10 · −9% habitat · no cultivation zone · EU monograph
    Resolve data first:Disputed
  • Stinging nettle0.31 · Moderate
    No. 11 · −29% habitat · no cultivation zone · EU monograph

Cultivation opportunity

10

Climate-resilient candidate crop; cultivation can take pressure off wild collection.

Rule: Gains or keeps habitat · has a 2050 cultivation zone

  • German chamomile0.30 · Moderate
    No. 16 · +65% habitat · 9,565 km² to cultivate · EU monograph
    Resolve data first:Disputed
  • White horehound0.29 · Moderate
    No. 17 · +191% habitat · 27,708 km² to cultivate · EU monograph
    Resolve data first:Low-confidence model
  • Wormwood0.29 · Moderate
    No. 18 · +151% habitat · 3,665 km² to cultivate · EU monograph
  • Greek sage0.29 · Moderate
    No. 22 · +28% habitat · 3,146 km² to cultivate
    Resolve data first:Disputed
  • French / topped lavender0.28 · Moderate
    No. 23 · +45% habitat · 6,813 km² to cultivate
  • Conehead thyme0.28 · Moderate
    No. 24 · +8% habitat · 971 km² to cultivate
  • squirting cucumber0.28 · Moderate
    No. 25 · +63% habitat · 5,387 km² to cultivate
  • pennyroyal0.19 · Low
    No. 28 · +18% habitat · 4,861 km² to cultivate
    Resolve data first:Low-confidence model
  • Greek cyclamen0.19 · Low
    No. 29 · +11% habitat · 5,807 km² to cultivate
  • Mandrake0.18 · Low
    No. 32 · +55% habitat · 4,496 km² to cultivate

Monitor

11

Stable or expanding; keep watching harvest and status.

Rule: Gains or keeps habitat · no 2050 cultivation zone

  • Ribwort plantain0.30 · Moderate
    No. 12 · +69% habitat · no cultivation zone · EU monograph
    Resolve data first:Disputed
  • Wall germander0.30 · Moderate
    No. 13 · +14% habitat · no cultivation zone
    Resolve data first:Disputed
  • Lemon balm0.30 · Moderate
    No. 14 · +50% habitat · no cultivation zone · EU monograph
    Resolve data first:Low-confidence model
  • Felty germander0.30 · Moderate
    No. 15 · +97% habitat · no cultivation zone
    Resolve data first:Low-confidence model
  • Common mallow0.29 · Moderate
    No. 19 · +77% habitat · no cultivation zone · EU monograph
    Resolve data first:Low-confidence model
  • Rosemary0.29 · Moderate
    No. 20 · +38% habitat · no cultivation zone · EU monograph
    Resolve data first:Low-confidence model
  • Fennel0.29 · Moderate
    No. 21 · +76% habitat · no cultivation zone · EU monograph
    Resolve data first:Low-confidence model
  • Yellow horned poppy0.28 · Moderate
    No. 26 · +9% habitat · no cultivation zone
  • Common centaury0.20 · Low
    No. 27 · +17% habitat · no cultivation zone · EU monograph
    Resolve data first:Low-confidence model
  • Mastic tree, lentisk0.18 · Low
    No. 30 · +1% habitat · no cultivation zone · EU monograph
  • caper0.18 · Low
    No. 31 · +161% habitat · no cultivation zone
For growers, cooperatives and extension services

What could I grow here in 2050?

Pick a ~10 km cell or a farming region. The sheet lists the plants whose 2050 climate suits cultivation there, flags the ones whose wild populations are shrinking (so cultivation also takes collecting pressure off them) and the ones with an EU herbal monograph, which signals an existing regulated market.

Plants you could grow · 2050 moderate
Natural Earth (PD) · model output · ~10 km cells
Loading map layers (0 of 1)
Plants per cell123–45–67+Click a cell, or pick a region.

Rules and caveats

  • Loses habitat means the upper end of the 3-model spread is still a loss (SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060), so all climate models agree. Under SSP5-8.5 the same 11 plants lose habitat.
  • Cultivation zone: suitable in 2050 under more than half of the climate models, on CORINE farmland or transitional land, outside Natura 2000 and at least 5 km from wild records (pipeline stage 6). It says nothing about soil, water or economics.
  • Resolve data first: disputed identification (we may be modelling the wrong plant) or fewer than 30 records / AUC below 0.75.
  • The grower finder never shows wild locations and never ranks sites for collecting. Monograph status is regulatory information, not a health claim.
  • Thresholds are printed here so anyone can disagree with them; every input is on the plant pages and in the repository.